Coinbase Resumes India Operations, Reinforcing International Growth Amid Execution Risks

What happened

Coinbase has restarted user onboarding in India after a two-year pause, currently limited to crypto-to-crypto trades. The company announced plans for a fiat on-ramp in 2026 to enable direct money deposits, aligning with its strategy to expand beyond the U.S. market. This move leverages Coinbase's infrastructure strengths, such as custody and derivatives, but faces challenges like regulatory uncertainty and fierce local competition. Critically, the near-term financial impact is minimal as the fiat feature is delayed, and earnings remain tied to crypto volatility and fee compression. Overall, it reflects a cautious step in long-term diversification rather than an immediate catalyst.

Implication

The re-entry into India could gradually increase Coinbase's user base and transaction volumes, supporting its international growth narrative. It aligns with the derivatives expansion via Deribit, potentially enhancing global options market share over time. However, regulatory hurdles in India, similar to those cited in the report's risk section, may delay or complicate the fiat on-ramp launch. Near-term, revenue will remain driven by U.S.-centric factors like ETF custody and volatility, with minimal contribution from India until 2026. Investors should view this as a neutral development that reinforces the HOLD stance, given the high valuation and execution dependencies.

Thesis delta

The DeepValue thesis remains unchanged; this news is consistent with Coinbase's long-term vision for international expansion and does not alter the HOLD rating. No shift to BUY is warranted as the move is incremental, execution-heavy, and unlikely to impact near-term earnings meaningfully. However, successful implementation could slightly improve earnings diversification over the medium term, but risks from regulation and competition temper optimism.