Ferrari's EV Stalemate Underscores Growth Doubts Despite Robust Margins

What happened

Ferrari's brand power and strict production caps continue to deliver luxury-like profit margins, with a 38.8% EBITDA margin in FY2025, as highlighted in recent news. However, the stock has fallen 25% since October 2025 due to lower long-term sales guidance, reflecting persistent market skepticism over growth ambitions. The DeepValue report confirms Ferrari is priced at $333.8 for sustained margin defense through mix and personalization, with critical proof points like order book duration and revenue per shipment trends due in the next 6-9 months. The upcoming Ferrari Luce EV reveal on May 25, 2026, now framed as stalled in the news, is a key milestone to assess EV roadmap credibility amidst reports of weak segment demand. This tension between strong current profitability and execution risks in electrification keeps the investment thesis in a 'WAIT' mode, with no immediate resolution.

Implication

Ferrari's high margins offer a temporary buffer, but the stock's premium valuation leaves no margin of safety if growth stumbles, as seen in the October sell-off. The EV delay signals underlying weakness in luxury EV demand, potentially stalling long-term targets and increasing reliance on mix gains. Upcoming catalysts, like the May 2026 EV premiere, will critically test management's execution and brand heat without volume growth. Without clear progress, the bear case of order book shortening and margin erosion becomes more plausible, threatening the base scenario. Therefore, maintaining a 'WAIT' stance until these proof points materialize is prudent to avoid permanent multiple compression.

Thesis delta

The news does not shift the core thesis but reinforces the EV-related risks already flagged in the DeepValue report, validating the 'WAIT' rating. It underscores the urgency of the imminent EV reveal and demand visibility checks as make-or-break events. Investors should remain patient, as any deviation could accelerate downside scenarios without new upside catalysts.