Amgen Q1 Earnings Preview: Can Growth Assets Outweigh Legacy Headwinds?

What happened

Amgen heads into Q1 2026 earnings with a strong beat streak, but the DeepValue report flags persistent headwinds. Revenue growth from Repatha, Tezspire, and Horizon assets is offset by accelerating erosion in Enbrel, Otezla, and upcoming biosimilar pressure on Prolia/XGEVA. The report rates Amgen a POTENTIAL SELL with a base case of $340, citing elevated leverage (~3.2x EBITDA) and unresolved tax risks. While key drugs are beating expectations, the core thesis warns that policy-driven price cuts and biosimilar competition are certain, while MariTide's obesity upside remains distant. Investors should watch for Q1 guidance on 2026 trends and whether growth products can offset legacy declines.

Implication

Over 6-18 months, asymmetric risks from IRA price cuts and biosimilars weigh against distant MariTide upside. Maintain underweight unless shares pull back to ~$295 or MariTide Phase 3 data de-risks the obesity platform.

Thesis delta

No major shift. The Q1 preview is a periodic check; DeepValue's cautious stance remains unchanged. The key risk remains that legacy erosion accelerates faster than growth assets can compensate, which could compress margins and valuation.