EQT: Revenue Doubles, Selloff Creates Value, But DeepValue Says Wait

What happened

EQT reported a powerful Q1 2026 with revenue surging 94% YoY to $3.38B, driven by premium realizations and strategic hedging, yet the stock has sold off amid broader market concerns. The DeepValue master report rates EQT a WAIT, citing a full valuation at 15.4x EV/EBITDA and a thesis that hinges on unproven LNG and infrastructure milestones. The Seeking Alpha article argues the selloff highlights underpricing, pointing to cheap valuation and a strong balance sheet with net debt/EBITDA of 0.7x. However, the DeepValue report warns that the “LNG + data centers” narrative lacks tangible proof, with key catalysts like Commonwealth LNG FID and MVP Boost progress still pending. While Q1 results provide near-term cash flow support, the stock at ~$58 still trades above the report’s attractive entry of $52, leaving limited margin of safety until catalysts materialize.

Implication

Investors should resist chasing the post-selloff dip. The DeepValue report’s $52 attractive entry and WAIT rating remain appropriate given the lack of margin of safety at current levels. For long-term holders, the key is to monitor Commonwealth LNG FID, MVP Boost FERC authorization, and debt reduction progress. Only upon evidence of these catalysts should positions be sized for upside to $62 base case. Until then, the risk/reward does not justify paying 15.4x EV/EBITDA for a business still managed via curtailments and subject to Appalachian basis volatility.

Thesis delta

The strong Q1 revenue beat and post-selloff price action bring the stock slightly closer to the attractive entry zone, but the core thesis remains unchanged: wait for observable proof of LNG commercialization and infrastructure takeaway expansion. The article's bullish tilt does not alter the DeepValue report's cautious stance, as the valuation at ~$58 still offers limited upside without catalysts. The delta is that the selloff reduces some downside risk, but not enough to upgrade from WAIT to BUY; the catalyst-dependent thesis remains intact.