AbbVie Q1 Beats on Adjusted EPS, Raises Guidance; Immunology Drives Growth

What happened

AbbVie's Q1 2026 revenue of $15.0B (+12.4%) beat expectations, driven by immunology (+16.4%) as Skyrizi ($4.48B) and Rinvoq ($2.12B) continued to offset Humira's decline ($688M, -49% YoY). Adjusted EPS of $2.65 (+7.7%) also topped consensus, prompting management to raise full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $14.08-$14.28. However, GAAP EPS plunged 45.8% to $0.39 due to $0.41/share in acquired IPR&D and milestone expenses, a recurring drag that depresses reported profitability. The results validate the post-Humira transition thesis but underscore extreme concentration: Skyrizi and Rinvoq now account for ~44% of total revenue. With the stock already up ~15% year-to-date, the raised guidance appears to be priced in, leaving little room for error on Rinvoq access or IRA headwinds.

Implication

Strong immunology performance validates the core thesis, but we remain cautious due to two-product concentration, policy risks (IRA negotiations on Botox), and the conditional nature of Rinvoq's exclusivity. The raised guidance improves the base case modestly, but the risk-reward still favors waiting for 2 more quarters of demand-led growth confirmation before upgrading from WAIT.

Thesis delta

The Q1 results confirm the immunology growth trajectory, reducing near-term downside risk but not eliminating the two-product concentration concern. The raised guidance marginally improves the base case, but the thesis remains a WAIT until further proof of sustainable share capture and Rinvoq duration.