GFL Environmental Beats Q1 Estimates, Raises FY2026 EBITDA Guidance by $90M

What happened

GFL Environmental reported a strong Q1 2026, with adjusted EBITDA of $478.5 million, up 12.3% year-over-year, and a record Q1 margin of 29.1%, driven by 7.0% price growth that accelerated sequentially. The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by $90 million to approximately $2.23 billion, reflecting confidence in underlying solid waste fundamentals. While net loss from continuing operations was $219.2 million due to non-cash charges, adjusted free cash flow generation remained robust, supporting ongoing deleveraging and capital returns. The results underscore the successful post-carve-out focus on core solid waste operations, with margin expansion and pricing power demonstrating the durability of the business model. Year-to-date acquisitions added significant annualized revenue, highlighting disciplined M&A execution within leverage targets.

Implication

GFL's Q1 beat and guidance raise confirm the solid waste margin durability and pricing power that underpin our BUY stance. With leverage near 3.1x and adjusted FCF compounding, the company is well-positioned for disciplined M&A and buybacks. The 7% price growth and record Q1 margin signal that disposal-led pricing remains intact despite commodity volatility. Long-term investors should focus on the cash generation trajectory and optionality from RNG and MRF upgrades, which provide upside beyond the raised guidance.

Thesis delta

GFL's Q1 results and $90M guidance raise validate the core thesis of a delevered, cash-generating solid waste platform with margin durability. The acceleration in price growth and record Q1 margin strengthen confidence in near-term execution, but no fundamental shift is required. We maintain our BUY stance with increased conviction.