MYR Group Q1 2026 Results Extend Rebound, But Valuation Remains Stretched

What happened

MYR Group reported first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, extending the earnings and margin recovery that began after the 2024 loss year. The rebound reflects improved project execution, fewer negative estimate changes, and robust demand from data center and grid modernization markets. However, the stock's 59% year-over-year surge to $235 embeds expectations of sustained mid-single-digit margins that the company has historically achieved only sporadically. Secular tailwinds support volume but percentage-of-completion accounting and project risk keep earnings volatile, and the 2024 episode remains a stark warning. At 37x P/E and 31x EV/EBITDA, the valuation offers limited margin of safety even if the bull case fully materializes.

Implication

The Q1 results reinforce the near-term rebound but do not de-risk the structural margin volatility that warrants a disciplined exit above $230. Wait for either a lower entry near $170 or multiple quarters of proof that 4-5% margins are sustainable before re-entering.

Thesis delta

Q1 2026 results confirm the operational rebound but do not alter the core thesis that MYR's current valuation overstates its mid-cycle earnings power. The risk-reward remains skewed to the downside at $235, and the trim target remains intact.