Antero Midstream Guides High-Single-Digit EBITDA Growth Through 2028

What happened

Antero Midstream reported Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $288 million, including a partial quarter from the HG Midstream acquisition, and expects ~$309 million per quarter for the remainder of 2026, implying a full-year run rate above $1.2 billion. Management guided to high-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in 2027 and 2028, with a base case of $1.4 billion and an upside case of $1.5 billion by 2028. This guidance hinges on smooth HG integration, continued drilling by Antero Resources, and stable-to-improving natural gas prices. While the outlook is positive, it relies on sustained capital spending and commodity demand, which remain key risks. The guidance is more optimistic than the DeepValue report's base case of ~5% annual growth, but aligns with the bull case scenario.

Implication

The high-single-digit EBITDA growth outlook strengthens the thesis for 10-15% annualized total returns if realized. However, the guidance is non-binding and depends on HG closing and AR drilling pace. Investors should monitor Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance for confirmation. A failure to deliver on these targets or a macro headwind (sub-$3 gas) could lead to de-rating. The dividend remains secure under the base case, but leverage above 3.5x would pressure it. Stay disciplined: the attractive entry remains at $17.00, and trimming above $21.00 is still warranted.

Thesis delta

The DeepValue report's base case assumed ~5% annual EBITDA growth, but the new guidance points to high-single-digit growth, which is more consistent with the bull case. This does not change the overall rating but raises the probability of the bull scenario. Investors should still watch for HG integration and AR's drilling commitments; the thesis remains valid but with a slightly higher growth trajectory expectation.