TC Energy Q1 2026: Strong Operational Results and US$1.5B Expansion Approval

What happened

TC Energy reported strong Q1 2026 operating and financial results, achieving seven delivery records across North America. The company also approved a US$1.5 billion Columbia Gas expansion project, extending its reach into a high-demand market. This reinforces the post-simplification strategy focused on a predominantly regulated/contracted gas network, now anchored by Coastal GasLink's long-term contracts serving the LNG Canada ramp. The expansion signals visible throughput growth opportunities, consistent with the secular LNG and power/industrial gas demand tailwinds identified in our DeepValue analysis. Management's continued execution on growth projects supports a favorable risk/reward profile.

Implication

The strong Q1 results and expansion approval provide tangible evidence of TC Energy’s growth trajectory in a simplified, gas-centric portfolio. Investors should expect continued throughput gains from the LNG Canada ramp and additional regulated expansions. The company’s predominantly contracted revenue base offers downside protection, while permitting and regulatory risks remain watch items. Given the alignment with our thesis, we maintain a BUY/LONG stance. Key monitoring points include LNG Canada cargo cadence and further regulatory decisions on allowed ROE/rate base.

Thesis delta

The US$1.5B Columbia Gas expansion approval and strong Q1 operational results validate the BUY thesis: TC Energy is executing on visible, regulated growth opportunities. No material change to the core thesis, but this data point increases confidence in near-to-medium-term volume and cash flow growth.