CMB.TECH: Tanker Upswing Extends Runway For Undervalued Hydrogen-Enabled Shipping Platform

What happened

A new sector piece argues that despite weak sentiment, maritime shipping is set up for strong returns into 2026, with valuations at multi‑year lows and catalysts including shifting tariff dynamics, a robust tanker cycle, the Simandou iron ore ramp-up, and potential rotation from tech into value assets. This constructive macro backdrop aligns with CMB.TECH’s position as a diversified tanker owner, where the DeepValue report already highlighted 2024 earnings strength and very low multiples (P/E ~2.2x; EV/EBITDA ~3.7x) despite a softer 1Q25 run-rate. For CMB.TECH specifically, sector tailwinds enhance the value of its asset-backed balance sheet and sizeable VLCC orderbook, which together provide both cash generation and collateral to fund its integrated hydrogen and ammonia strategy. Recent results confirm that 2023–2024 free cash flow and covenant-compliant leverage (~2.0x net debt/EBITDA, equity-to-assets 30.5%) offer resilience even as tanker spot rates moderate from peak levels. In combination, a likely extended shipping up-cycle and CMB.TECH’s differentiated decarbonization platform support the view that the company can sustain attractive earnings from its tanker fleet while building higher-multiple hydrogen and ammonia revenue streams into the late decade.

Implication

For investors, the combination of an under-owned shipping sector and CMB.TECH’s deep value metrics strengthens the case for a BUY rating with a multi-year horizon. An extended tanker cycle into 2026 would help monetize the company’s VLCC exposure, accelerate deleveraging, and internally fund capex for hydrogen and ammonia projects, reducing reliance on dilutive equity or expensive debt. As the market potentially rotates from growth/tech toward value and hard-asset plays, CMB.TECH’s low P/E and EV/EBITDA could support a material re-rating, especially if the company demonstrates clear commercialization milestones in hydrogen (e.g., MOL ammonia ships, BeHydro scaling, bunkering partnerships). Key risks remain a sharper-than-expected downturn in tanker rates, delays or disappointment in hydrogen policy and adoption, and balance-sheet sensitivity if asset values decline, so position sizing should account for cyclical volatility. Overall, patient investors willing to tolerate shipping cyclicality may see an attractive risk/reward, with tanker cash flows acting as a bridge to higher-quality, transition-linked earnings later in the decade and potential multiple expansion as that story matures.

Thesis delta

The new sector analysis reinforces, rather than changes, the existing BUY thesis on CMB.TECH by increasing confidence that the broader tanker and dry bulk environment can remain supportive into 2026, reducing near-term downside risk to earnings and asset values. Our stance stays BUY, but with a modestly higher conviction that tanker cash flows will provide a longer runway to fund the hydrogen and ammonia build-out before transition revenues fully scale. The main incremental risk remains that investors may front-run a rotation into shipping and compress the easy value gap sooner, but on balance the risk/reward skew improves as the macro backdrop appears more durable than previously assumed.