Doximity Earnings On Deck; Analysts Revise Forecasts as Q4 FY2026 Report Approaches

What happened

Doximity is set to report Q4 FY2026 earnings after the close on May 13, with analysts adjusting forecasts ahead of the call. The company enters the print with strong momentum, having delivered $570M revenue and $314M adjusted EBITDA in FY2025, and guided FY2026 to $640-646M revenue and $351-357M adjusted EBITDA. Key metrics to watch include net revenue retention (currently 118-119%), large customer counts, and progress on AI-driven workflow tools like Scribe. A beat-and-raise could reinforce the bull case, while a miss or margin compression would raise concerns about pharma budget sensitivity. The stock's valuation (~13x EV/EBITDA) screens reasonable but leaves little room for disappointment.

Implication

Sustained execution on guidance and stable NRR above 118% could support re-rating, while any signs of deceleration in pharma spending or legal overhang would warrant caution.

Thesis delta

No fundamental shift from the DeepValue report; the upcoming earnings are a key test of the 'POSSIBLE BUY' thesis. A strong print with raised guidance could upgrade the stance, while a miss would validate the cautious tone and potentially trigger a downgrade to WAIT.