Amprius’ Q3 growth accelerates, but valuation and technical froth cap near-term upside

What happened

Amprius reported a standout Q3 2025 with roughly 173% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by strong new and repeat orders, pushing nine-month sales to $47.8 million versus $13.5 million a year ago. Demand remains heavily skewed to aviation, particularly unmanned aerial systems, which now accounts for about three-quarters of revenue, with incremental pull from light EV applications. These operational trends corroborate the DeepValue view of a company with differentiated silicon-anode technology, growing commercial traction, and meaningful policy and defense tailwinds. However, Amprius is still loss-making with negative free cash flow and reliant on third-party manufacturing and ongoing equity financing as it scales, leaving execution risk around margins, yields, and the Brighton, Colorado facility timeline. Against this backdrop, the new article argues that the stock’s valuation and technically extended trading pattern have outrun near-term fundamentals, justifying a rating downgrade even as the business momentum improves.

Implication

For investors, the Q3 print reinforces that Amprius’ technology is finding real product-market fit in aviation, which incrementally de-risks the demand side of the thesis. At the same time, the company remains in investment mode, burning cash and depending on contract manufacturers and equity issuance, so any stumble in yield, pricing, or capacity build-out could disproportionately impact the equity. With the market cap already around $1.1 billion and no formal guidance, much of the near-term growth story appears priced in, leaving a thinner margin of safety if expectations reset. The article’s emphasis on valuation and technical overextension suggests a less favorable entry point, even for those constructive on the long-term silicon-anode opportunity. Practically, this argues for a disciplined HOLD stance: maintain positions if already invested but be cautious on adding size until either the share price better reflects execution risk or the company demonstrates sustained margin expansion and clearer, funded capacity milestones.

Thesis delta

The core thesis of Amprius as a high-potential, technology-led aviation battery play remains intact and is modestly strengthened by Q3’s strong revenue growth and evidence of repeat demand. However, the incremental information on stretched valuation and unfavorable technical setup shifts the risk/reward less attractively than in the prior DeepValue report, reducing the near-term case for upgrading from HOLD despite improving fundamentals. In effect, the thesis tilts from a balanced HOLD with optional upside to a more cautious HOLD where investors should wait for either better pricing or further de-risking of manufacturing and funding before getting more aggressive.