Bullish Article on Linde Faces Valuation and Risk Scrutiny

What happened

A Seeking Alpha article from December 2025 promotes Linde as a buy with 20% upside, citing EPS growth drivers and emerging opportunities in space and electronics. However, the latest DeepValue master report maintains a HOLD stance, highlighting the stock's high P/E of 31.5 against a DCF anchor of $228 per share, which suggests a thin margin of safety. Key risks identified in the report include project-timing uncertainties in low-carbon hydrogen and soft volumes in Europe, potentially delaying growth. While the article points to AI-driven productivity and new growth vectors, these are already embedded in Linde's long-term outlook, supported by a $58 billion backlog providing multi-year visibility. Investors should balance this short-term optimism with the analytical caution from the report, which emphasizes execution risks and valuation concerns.

Implication

First, the article's bullish call is based on factors that are largely known and may be fully priced in at current elevated valuation levels. Second, the DeepValue report stresses that without timely conversion of the $7.1 billion sale-of-gas backlog or progress on hydrogen project FIDs, near-term upside could be limited. Third, the 1.5% dividend yield offers modest income but does not adequately compensate for the valuation gap relative to intrinsic value. Fourth, a stock pullback could align the price more closely with fundamentals, creating a better entry point as indicated by the report's watch items. Fifth, current holders should focus on monitoring quarterly performance and policy developments rather than reacting to promotional content that overlooks core risks.

Thesis delta

No significant shift in the investment thesis; the article reinforces positive aspects like growth vectors but does not address the core valuation concerns and execution risks highlighted in the DeepValue report. The HOLD stance remains appropriate unless catalysts such as accelerated hydrogen FIDs or stronger electronics demand materialize to justify the premium.