Nebius Raises Contracted Power Target to Over 4GW, Adds Pennsylvania Site

What happened

Nebius reported Q1 2026 earnings, raising its year-end 2026 contracted power target to at least 4 GW, up from prior guidance, and disclosed a new 1.2 GW site in Pennsylvania. The company's Q1 revenue surged to $399M (from $50.9M a year ago) and Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $129.5M, demonstrating scaling profitability as capacity comes online. However, the DeepValue Master report maintains a WAIT rating, emphasizing that the stock prices in flawless execution despite filings that push major hyperscaler deployments into early 2027 and include delay penalties. The key near-term proof point remains converting contracted power into connected/active power, with a YE2026 target of 800MW–1GW connected. While the increased power pipeline extends the long-term opportunity, the investment thesis still hinges on on-time delivery and avoidance of dilution from equity-linked financing.

Implication

Investors should view the increased capacity target as a bullish long-term signal, but the stock's valuation already reflects aggressive assumptions. The next 6–12 months require tangible evidence: connected power tracking to 800MW–1GW by YE2026 and no use of the ATM or adverse financing terms. If these milestones are met, the stock could re-rate toward the bull case of $320; if not, the bear case of $140 becomes more likely.

Thesis delta

The elevated contracted power target (over 4GW vs. prior ~3GW) expands the potential revenue runway but does not change the immediate execution risk. The thesis shifts from simply 'can Nebius secure power contracts?' to 'can it convert this massive pipeline into energized capacity on schedule?' The WAIT rating is reinforced because the stock now prices in an even more aggressive long-term outcome while near-term delivery schedules remain unchanged.