UAMY Shares Tumble After Q1 Earnings Miss, Zero DLA Revenue

What happened

United States Antimony reported Q1 revenue of $6.8 million and a net loss of $11.3 million, missing analyst expectations on both lines. The company recognized zero revenue from its DLA defense contract despite disclosing ~$12 million in delivery orders and issuing delivery notices. Gross margin compressed to 16% as antimony unit costs rose to $16.28/lb, with no benefit yet from in-house Montana feed or the Thompson Falls expansion. Antimony inventory ballooned to $21.7 million, up from $12.0 million at year-end, implying significant working capital build ahead of expected 2H shipments. Management reiterated FY26 revenue guidance of ~$125 million but acknowledged it is heavily weighted to the second half, making Q2–Q3 execution critical.

Implication

The Q1 results reveal a wide gap between market expectations and operational reality: zero DLA revenue, rising costs, and inventory growth require tangible proof of conversion in the next two quarters. The attractive entry of $7.50 remains valid if delays persist, while the base case of $11.00 hinges on timely commissioning and shipment cadence. Investors should not price in the $125M guidance until DLA revenue appears and margins recover from the current 16% level.

Thesis delta

The Q1 print confirms that DLA revenue conversion and Thompson Falls commissioning remain unrealized, shifting the timeline risk to later quarters. The market's assumption of imminent revenue is not yet supported by results, increasing the probability of the bear scenario ($6.00) if proof does not emerge by Q3. The thesis now depends entirely on visible shipment acceptance and cost improvement in 2H26.