Ferrari's $640K EV Luce Draws Orders, Bolstering Bull Case

What happened

Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna stated that the company is already receiving orders for its first fully electric vehicle, the Luce priced at $640,000, despite public criticism over its design and cost. This early demand aligns with the bull scenario in our analysis, where the Luce premiere drives high-quality orders without incremental discounting or dealer support. However, the order book remains non-binding and the company has yet to provide firm production or delivery dates, leaving execution risk intact. The news supports the narrative of sustained pricing power and brand strength, but the stock at $348 already prices in significant margin resilience. Investors should view this as a positive data point but wait for tangible commercialization milestones before upgrading conviction.

Implication

If Ferrari converts these orders into dated production commitments without margin leakage, the bull case to $420 becomes more plausible; however, the stock trades at 33x earnings with limited safety margin.

Thesis delta

The early order intake increases the likelihood of the bull scenario (20% probability) and reduces the risk of a bear outcome where the EV fails to attract demand. However, we still lack quantified tariff impact and need to see if order quality holds. This shifts the weight slightly toward adding to positions near attractive entry ($320), but the stock is currently above that level.