TMC's Call Highlights Progress, But Report Flags Procedural and Dilution Risks

What happened

TMC's shareholder call reiterated its NOAA full compliance determination and the Allseas commercial agreement targeting Q4 2027 commissioning. However, the DeepValue master report warns that 'full compliance' is procedural and does not constitute approval, with no statutory deadlines for the permitting process. The Federal Register docket and EIS Notice of Intent remain unconfirmed, delaying verifiable de-risking. With $120M cash and $34M in Allseas payables, the pre-revenue model faces dilution risk if milestones slip. At $5.60, the market prices a smooth pathway, but the report's bear case of $3.25 reflects the high probability of delays and equity financing.

Implication

Investors should require proof of dated milestones (FR notice, Allseas subcontracts) before re-engaging; the current price discounts procedural risk and potential dilution.

Thesis delta

The earlier thesis centered on regulatory catalyst potential, but this update shifts to a 'prove it' stance. Despite headline progress, the absence of verifiable public process artifacts and a viable processing plan means the stock is overvalued relative to negative outcome probabilities. The investment case now hinges on tangible milestones, not mere regulatory steps.