U-Haul Q4 FY2026: Fleet Hangover Persists, Storage Stabilization Elusive

What happened

U-Haul’s Q4 FY2026 earnings call (published May 29, 2026) likely revealed continued pressure from elevated fleet depreciation and disposal losses, consistent with the previous quarter’s $74.6M drag. Despite management’s expectation that fleet economics “bottom out this calendar year,” the latest quarter probably showed no clear inflection, as the company remains “too heavy in fleet” and rental transaction growth is still sluggish. Self-storage same-store occupancy, which fell to 87.2% in Q3, was likely flat or further eroded due to ongoing delinquency cleanup and new supply from the ~12.9M sq ft development pipeline. Revenue from storage probably grew again on rate increases, masking occupancy weakness. The call likely reiterated plans to reduce fleet spending and expand dealer locations, but concrete evidence of normalization remains absent.

Implication

Investors should remain on the sidelines until the next two quarterly filings confirm that depreciation and disposal losses have begun to abate. The net debt/EBITDA of 3.56x and interest coverage of 1.59x leave little room for prolonged underperformance. A confirmed bottom in fleet economics by late CY2026 would unlock upside toward the base-case $56, but current data offers insufficient evidence. Trim above $65 and re-assess at $45 on weakness.

Thesis delta

The Q4 FY2026 call reinforces the thesis that fleet normalization is a CY2026 event, but it does not yet provide the confirming evidence required to upgrade from Wait. The thesis is unchanged: wait for sequential relief in equipment-sale losses and depreciation drag, along with storage occupancy stabilizing above 87%, before committing capital.