RTX Expands Landing Gear Capacity in Poland as Pratt Headwinds Persist

What happened

RTX's Collins Aerospace is opening a new landing gear production facility in Poland to scale capacity for rising commercial aircraft demand. This capacity expansion supports the broader backlog-to-results narrative but does not address the company's primary near-term headwind: the ~$0.7B powder-metal cash impact at Pratt & Whitney in 2026 and rising contract assets from sales in excess of billings. The facility is a medium-term positive for Collins, but the stock at $174 still prices in execution success with no margin of safety. The key swing factors remain Pratt's cash discipline and working-capital normalization over the next two quarters.

Implication

Capacity expansion is necessary for long-term growth, but the investment case hinges on Pratt's cash conversion and working-capital trends through 2026. Until contract assets decline and powder-metal cash impact stays bounded, the risk/reward remains unfavorable at 32.4x P/E. Re-assess after two quarters of filings confirming FCF durability.

Thesis delta

No material shift. The Poland landing gear expansion is an incremental operational positive for Collins but does not change the dominant investment drivers: Pratt & Whitney's powder-metal cash headwind (~$0.7B in 2026) and contract asset growth from sales-in-excess-of-billings. The WAIT rating remains appropriate as these key risks have not improved.