Haivision Q2 Results: Customer Caution Undermines FY2026 Revenue Run-Rate Thesis

What happened

Haivision reported Q2 FY2026 results with CEO Mirko Wicha citing lengthened customer approval cycles due to macro uncertainty, tariff cost pressure, and shifting IT priorities. The weak start to FY2026 (Q1 revenue $28.2M, Q2 likely similarly soft) departs from the ~$37.5M quarterly run-rate needed to support the $150M full-year target. This confirms that Q4 FY2025's $40.2M spike was seasonal and government-timing driven, not a sustainable step-function. Operating expenses remain elevated from the $11.8M YoY increase in FY2025, squeezing adjusted EBITDA margins despite structurally high ~72% gross margins. At 32.5x EV/EBITDA, the stock prices in a durable inflection that the first half results strongly contradict.

Implication

The FY2026 base case ($150M revenue, 12-13% EBITDA margin) now looks improbable after two weak quarters. Unless H2 delivers a dramatic acceleration, the stock likely re-rates toward the bear case $6.50, offering no margin of safety at current levels.

Thesis delta

The thesis shifts from neutral wait-and-see to incrementally negative. Q1 and Q2 FY2026 confirm that the Q4 FY2025 outperformance was a seasonal spike, not a new run-rate. The investment case now depends entirely on an unlikely H2 recovery to hit full-year targets. The margin of safety has evaporated, increasing downside risk.