Oklo’s Siemens pact advances Aurora toward construction but leaves core regulatory and funding risks intact

What happened

Oklo shares moved higher after the company announced a binding agreement with Siemens Energy that management and commentators frame as moving the first Aurora microreactor project into the construction phase. The deal appears to secure a key industrial partner for critical plant systems, materially reducing perceived supply‑chain and execution risk around initial deployment relative to the situation described in recent SEC filings. This operational de‑risking contrasts with Oklo’s still‑early regulatory status: the company continues to lack NRC approvals for its powerhouses, fuel fabrication, or recycling facilities, and its first deployment is still targeted for 2027/28. Financially, Oklo remains pre‑revenue with negative free cash flow and only about a one‑year liquidity runway post‑Q2 2025 offering, making future capital raises likely even with a strong OEM partner in place. The market’s positive reaction reflects increased confidence in project delivery, but it comes against a backdrop of a roughly $12 billion market cap and a valuation that already prices in substantial long‑term success.

Implication

For investors, the Siemens partnership is a genuine positive in that it anchors a credible EPC/OEM counterparty to the first Aurora project, lowering the probability of delays or cost overruns tied to unavailable equipment or engineering capacity. However, the agreement does not change the fact that Oklo lacks NRC approval for its core reactor and fuel‑cycle facilities, so regulatory outcomes remain the dominant binary driver of intrinsic value. Nor does it materially extend the company’s roughly one‑year cash runway or eliminate the need for additional equity or project‑level financing, which could be dilutive if sentiment turns or if execution slips. Given the current ~$12 billion valuation, negative earnings, and long‑dated cash‑flow profile, the incremental de‑risking from this deal looks more than reflected in the share price, suggesting a poor margin of safety for new capital. Existing shareholders should scrutinize forthcoming disclosures on contract scope, cost sharing, and performance guarantees, while prospective investors may want to stay on the sidelines until there is clearer evidence of NRC progress, non‑dilutive funding, and economically attractive long‑term PPAs with high‑quality counterparties.

Thesis delta

The Siemens Energy agreement partially addresses one previously highlighted risk—supply‑chain and execution uncertainty around the first Aurora build—by locking in a reputable industrial partner as the project moves toward construction. That said, it does not resolve the most material overhangs in the DeepValue SELL thesis: the absence of NRC approvals for reactors and fuel cycle, a short liquidity runway, and an equity valuation that already discounts a high probability of long‑term success. As a result, our stance remains SELL, albeit with slightly improved confidence in Oklo’s ability to physically execute its first project if regulatory and financing milestones are met.