SpaceX Lists on Nasdaq, DXYZ's Proxy Premium Faces Reality Check

What happened

Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) surged on news that SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX, the catalyst that had driven its entire bull case as a proxy for private SpaceX exposure. However, the fund's market price already carried a +92% premium to a stale NAV of $19.97 as of December 31, 2025, meaning the surge further inflated an already stretched valuation. With SpaceX now directly tradeable, the fundamental reason to own DXYZ at a massive premium vanishes, as investors can simply buy SPCX shares instead. The fund's management has a history of issuing new shares into demand, having doubled the share count in FY2025, which could accelerate premium compression now that the proxy narrative is obsolete. The likely outcome is a sharp re-rating as the premium collapses toward NAV, especially when the next updated NAV is published, exposing the disconnect.

Implication

Existing holders should sell into strength as the premium is likely to compress significantly over the coming weeks. The fund's 4.53% expense ratio and management's willingness to issue shares further erode the case for holding. The re-assessment window for the bull case has closed; the stock could re-rate toward our bear scenario of $29 or below.

Thesis delta

SpaceX's direct listing removes the scarcity premium that justified DXYZ's elevated price. The bull case catalyst has been realized, turning the fund into a legacy vehicle with no reason for a 90%+ premium. The focus now shifts to NAV updates and potential issuance, which will likely drive the price down.