Wall Street Turns More Bullish on DLocal, But Unit Economics Still Under Scrutiny

What happened

dLocal's payment volume growth accelerated further, but its take rate continued to decline, reflecting a deliberate growth strategy that prioritizes volume over pricing power. Despite weak market sentiment, Wall Street analysts have become increasingly bullish, potentially setting the stage for a sentiment turnaround if upcoming quarters show improving unit economics. The DeepValue report confirms that while TPV growth remained robust at 55% YoY in 9M-25, gross profit per TPV slipped to 0.99%, and EBITDA margins held around 25%, indicating the company is trading price for share. The report maintains a WAIT rating with an attractive entry price of $12, warning that the stock at $14.35 already prices in high growth and mid-20s margins without evidence of take-rate stabilization. New higher-margin products like BNPL and stablecoin payouts offer a potential offset, but until gross profit per TPV stabilizes, the margin of safety remains limited.

Implication

The increasing Wall Street bullishness may narrow the downside, but the investment thesis still hinges on visible stabilization of unit economics. Investors should monitor upcoming quarterly reports for gross profit per TPV trends and traction on new products. A failure to stabilize could see the stock retreat to $10, while success could drive it toward $22. The current price offers a balanced risk-reward; patient investors should wait for either a cheaper entry or confirmation of margin resilience.

Thesis delta

The article adds incremental support for the bull case via analyst upgrades, but does not alter the core thesis that unit economics remain under pressure. The DeepValue report's assessment of limited margin of safety and need for evidence of take-rate stabilization stands. No material shift in the investment call; the WAIT rating remains appropriate.