EVgo Q2 Preview: Revenue Decline and Persistent Losses Reinforce 'Wait' Stance

What happened

A Seeking Alpha preview of EVgo's Q2 2026 results expects a 16% year-over-year revenue decline to $80-$85 million, with adjusted EBITDA still negative, highlighting ongoing operational challenges despite a 21% share price drop over the past year. The DeepValue master report maintains a 'WAIT' rating, with a base-case value of $3.75 and an attractive entry at $2.25, stressing that EVgo remains structurally loss-making and dependent on DOE loan drawdowns. Stall growth continues but is capital-intensive, and the slow rollout of NACS connectors raises concerns about utilization and unit economics in a competitive EV charging market. Management's repeated guidance resets (e.g., 2025 EBITDA revised from positive to negative) underscore execution risk and optimistic framing. The report argues that waiting for clear evidence of sustained EBITDA breakeven and stable funding, or a lower entry price, offers a better risk-reward than current levels.

Implication

In the near term, the Q2 preview reinforces that EVgo is still burning cash and missing profitability milestones, justifying the 'Wait' rating. The master report's attractive entry at $2.25 offers a meaningful downside buffer if utilization stalls or DOE covenants tighten. Over the next 6-12 months, monitoring sequential improvement in throughput per stall, DOE draw progress, and any guidance changes is critical. A sustained revenue run-rate above $100M with positive EBITDA would support a re-rating toward the mid-$4s, but the bear case of $2.00 remains plausible if EV adoption slows or competition intensifies. Without clear proof of operating leverage, committing capital now is premature.

Thesis delta

The thesis remains unchanged: EVgo's path to profitability is uncertain and contingent on flawless execution, macro EV demand, and DOE loan usability. The Q2 preview reinforces the lack of an inflection point, pushing the re-assessment window out to late 2026. No shift is warranted; the 'Wait' stance is affirmed.