Boeing Delivered 64 Jets in June: Progress, Not a Breakthrough

What happened

Boeing delivered 64 jets in June, showing progress in ramping output after the March wiring pause disrupted deliveries. This supports management's narrative of improving execution, but the FAA's alternating-week certification delegation and the plan to produce only 42 to 47 jets per month suggest the recovery remains constrained. Positive free cash flow in the second half of 2025 provides some cushion, but the company still carries significant debt and faces regulatory hurdles. The delivery number, while positive, does not yet confirm a structural shift in the delivery cadence needed to hit the $1B–$3B FCF target. Therefore, the market's optimism may be premature, as the underlying friction in handover processes persists.

Implication

While the 64 deliveries suggest operational improvement, the thesis remains dependent on sustained delivery stability and FAA delegation expansion over the next 6–12 months. Investors should wait for Q2 evidence of normalized deliveries and FCF before adding positions, as the base case valuation of $220 offers limited upside from current levels.

Thesis delta

The June delivery number modestly reduces the probability of the bear case but does not shift the base case. The key risk remains that delivery volatility persists due to regulatory friction, and the market may be overpricing the pace of normalization. The recent delivery data supports a slightly higher confidence in the base case, but the structural constraints from the FAA and the March wiring issue still warrant caution.