Nvidia Boosts Nebius Stake by 18-Fold, Adding $4B

What happened

A regulatory filing reveals Nvidia increased its Nebius stake by over 21 million shares, now representing 12% of its portfolio. This $4B investment underscores Nvidia's strategic commitment to Nebius as a key AI infrastructure partner. However, the DeepValue Master Report maintains a WAIT rating, citing that the stock at $180 already prices in successful execution of the Microsoft and Meta contracts. The news validates demand but does not alter the core thesis: Nebius must still convert its $21B backlog and activate New Jersey tranches on schedule to justify current valuation.

Implication

The Nvidia investment adds another layer of validation to Nebius's demand story, but the investment thesis remains tied to operational delivery. Investors should wait for Q2/Q3 results to confirm tranche activation and revenue conversion before adding exposure. Only a meaningful pullback below $150 offers a sufficient margin of safety.

Thesis delta

The Nvidia stake increase reinforces the demand-side thesis but does not change the execution risk that underpins the WAIT rating. The core questions—can Nebius commission capacity on time and convert backlog to revenue—remain unanswered. The valuation still assumes flawless execution, so the thesis delta is minimal: slightly higher confidence in demand, but no improvement in the risk/reward setup.