Joby's Vertiport Deal Addresses Infrastructure Gap, But Financial and Regulatory Risks Remain Elevated

What happened

Joby Aviation has partnered with Metropolis to develop 25 vertiports across the U.S., incorporating AI recognition and baggage services as it prepares for near-term air taxi launches. This move targets a critical infrastructure hurdle highlighted in prior analyses, potentially accelerating route deployment if operational milestones are met. However, the company remains pre-commercial with minimal revenue (~$22.6 million YTD 2025) and deep losses (~$808.3 million net loss YTD 2025), alongside worsening free cash flow. The ~$12.8 billion market cap already embeds substantial success, leaving limited margin for error amid ongoing FAA certification delays and capital needs. While this partnership signals progress in ecosystem building, it does not alter Joby's fundamental reliance on speculative outcomes and external funding.

Implication

Investors should view this announcement as a necessary but insufficient step towards commercialization, as it does not guarantee timely FAA certification or consumer adoption. Infrastructure build-out requires additional capital and local approvals, potentially straining Joby's cash reserves and leading to further dilution. Early route performance will be crucial to validate untested unit economics and demand, which remain key vulnerabilities. Given the stock's 84% rise over the past year amid deepening losses, this news may fuel short-term optimism without addressing underlying value concerns. Prudent investors should maintain a cautious stance, prioritizing monitoring of certification progress and capital management over incremental partnerships.

Thesis delta

The vertiport partnership addresses an infrastructure risk noted in the DeepValue report, but it does not shift the core investment thesis. Joby remains a pre-commercial, loss-making entity with high valuation and binary outcomes dependent on certification and capital access. Therefore, the POTENTIAL SELL recommendation is unchanged, with continued focus on regulatory milestones and financial sustainability.