Jefferies Raises Ferrari Price Target on Q2 Beat, But Luce Uncertainty Lingers

What happened

Ferrari's Q2 2026 results (revenue €1.94B, EBIT €605M) showed robust pricing power and personalization growth, prompting a guidance raise and Jefferies’ target increase to €400. The stock jumped to $400.5, reflecting near-term optimism around legacy demand visibility. Despite this, the deep value master report maintains a WAIT rating, as the current price already prices in strong legacy performance at 38x P/E. The critical catalyst—Luce EV order intake and buyer mix—remains unquantified in filings, with first deliveries still months away. While the order book covers 2027 and personalization momentum is real, the next re-rating requires hard EV demand evidence, not analyst commentary.

Implication

The Q2 beat and analyst upgrade reinforce Ferrari’s legacy pricing power, but the stock’s high valuation leaves no margin of safety. Key risk remains the unproven Luce EV demand, with no filing-based disclosure to confirm new buyers or sustained exclusivity. Investors should await Q4 2026 delivery updates for Luce before adding; a pullback toward the $360 attractive entry would offer a better risk/reward.

Thesis delta

Q2 results and raised guidance align with our base case of mix and personalization offsetting volume/macro pressure. However, the analyst target increase does not resolve the central uncertainty: Luce EV order quality remains undisclosed, keeping the thesis as WAIT until hard data emerges. No change to our attractive entry at $360.