Amgen Raises 2025 Guidance on Strong Repatha and Imdelltra Sales, Reinforcing Growth Thesis Amid Ongoing Risks

What happened

Amgen has increased its full-year 2025 revenue guidance, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance driven by key products like Repatha and Imdelltra. Repatha's Q3 sales surged 40% year-over-year to $794 million, indicating robust demand in the cholesterol-lowering market. This aligns with the DeepValue report's view of volume-led growth, as 1H25 product sales rose 10% on 14% higher volumes, though offset by price declines. The guidance raise suggests execution on near-term drivers, but it comes against a backdrop of significant headwinds, including denosumab loss of exclusivity and IRA-related pricing pressures. Overall, while the news supports Amgen's growth narrative, it does not eliminate the balanced risk profile highlighted in recent filings.

Implication

This development reinforces the bull case for Amgen by demonstrating tangible progress on volume-driven sales from Repatha and Imdelltra, key growth vectors in the DeepValue report. However, investors should monitor the impending denosumab erosion in 2025, which could offset these gains, alongside persistent pricing headwinds under the IRA. The company's ability to sustain volume growth while managing price declines, as seen in recent quarters, will be critical for maintaining momentum. Long-term, success hinges on biosimilar adoption, Imdelltra expansions, and the obesity candidate MariTide, which are not yet proven drivers. Thus, while positive, this news requires a balanced view that acknowledges both execution strength and unresolved vulnerabilities.

Thesis delta

The guidance increase corroborates the DeepValue report's emphasis on Repatha and Imdelltra as near-term growth engines, enhancing confidence in revenue visibility. No fundamental shift in the BUY thesis is warranted, as core risks like denosumab erosion and leverage reduction remain unchanged and require ongoing scrutiny.