TRP Q2 EBITDA Surges 12%, Lifts 2026 Outlook; Gas-Centric Model Delivers

What happened

TC Energy reported a 12% year-over-year increase in second-quarter comparable EBITDA, driven by higher pipeline utilization, contributions from recently placed projects, and strong performance at Bruce Power. Management now expects to reach the upper end of its 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance, signaling robust operational momentum and earnings visibility. The results reflect the benefits of the post-2024 simplification into a predominantly gas-focused midstream utility, with Coastal GasLink and the LNG Canada ramp providing a structural demand anchor. Higher utilization on key systems like NGTL and U.S. interstates underscores the tailwind from North American LNG export growth. This performance reinforces the thesis that TRP’s contracted and regulated cash flows are poised to grow steadily through 2028.

Implication

The 12% EBITDA jump and upward revision to 2026 guidance de-risk the thesis that TRP’s post-spin portfolio will generate utility-like cash flow growth. Higher utilization across Canadian and U.S. pipelines directly links to rising LNG feedgas demand and power generation needs, supporting volume visibility. Bruce Power’s contribution adds a layer of regulated, non-commodity income stability. Investors should watch for sustained throughput trends and regulatory outcomes, but the latest numbers suggest the market underappreciates TRP’s earnings trajectory. With the LNG Canada ramp only beginning, this performance supports a BUY rating and a potentially higher valuation multiple.

Thesis delta

The Q2 beat and raised 2026 guidance directly validate the core BUY thesis of growing, contract-backed cash flows from a simplified gas network. No change in stance; confidence in near-term execution and LNG-linked volume growth increases.