AST SpaceMobile Article Touts Execution Progress, But DeepValue Maintains Strong Sell on Fundamental Risks

What happened

A Seeking Alpha article published on December 28, 2025, advocates for AST SpaceMobile as a speculative buy, arguing that the company is transitioning from concept to execution with production, launches, and contracts now central to its story. The article posits that business risk has shifted from technology viability to operational delivery and timing discipline, offering high convexity and limited downside visibility. In contrast, DeepValue's latest master report, based on SEC filings including the Q3 2025 10-Q, reiterates a STRONG SELL rating, highlighting AST's pre-commercial status with negligible revenue of $14.7 million and a net loss of $122.9 million in the quarter. The report emphasizes a market cap of $25.7 billion that far exceeds intrinsic value, supported by a DCF estimate of -$26.56 per share, and notes ongoing cash burn of over $800 million in the first nine months of 2025 funded by external financing. This creates a narrative where execution optimism is critically challenged by fundamental financial weaknesses, execution delays, and competitive threats documented in regulatory filings.

Implication

The article's focus on execution does not mitigate AST's core financial vulnerabilities, including a history of delays, negative earnings, and dependence on external capital, as detailed in SEC filings. DeepValue's analysis shows that AST's valuation, at ~18x book and -59x P/E, is disconnected from current cash flows, with intrinsic value far below the stock price, indicating significant downside risk. Operational hurdles, such as manufacturing and launching a 25-60 satellite constellation on schedule, remain substantial, compounded by regulatory approvals and competition from better-funded rivals like Starlink/T-Mobile. For fundamental investors, the risk/reward is unfavorable, with limited balance-sheet protection and high potential for equity dilution if capital needs escalate. Any speculative interest should be tempered by a critical assessment of execution timelines and financial sustainability beyond the article's optimistic framing.

Thesis delta

The article suggests a shift in AST's narrative towards execution, but it does not alter the DeepValue thesis, which remains a STRONG SELL based on overvaluation, financial instability, and unproven commercial scalability. No new data in the article contradicts the risks identified in SEC filings, such as cash burn, competitive pressures, and regulatory dependencies, so the investment stance is unchanged. Investors should view the article as promotional rather than substantive, as it overlooks the fundamental weaknesses that underpin the bearish case.