Amprius Q2 Revenue Rises but Cash Burn Persists; FY26 Targets Restated

What happened

Amprius delivered Q2 revenue of $33.2 million, up 194% year-over-year, driven by repeat orders from UAS and new e-mobility customers. Gross margin held at 21% after adjusting for one-time costs, but operating cash outflow remained at $16.4 million as working-capital needs and contract-manufacturing ramp consumed cash. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of at least $130 million revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA, but cautioned that heavy second-half reliance on large-order conversions introduces risk. The NDAA-compliant supply chain qualification provided no material update, leaving a key defense catalyst unvalidated. Insider selling continued with clustering around quarter-end, raising concerns about alignment with public shareholders.

Implication

The market will likely penalize any slippage in the remaining performance-obligation conversion or cash-burn normalization, given a high valuation dependent on near-perfect execution. The second-half ramp needed to meet FY26 targets looks increasingly binary, with two large customers comprising the bulk of expected shipments. Evidence of operating cash outflow dropping below $10 million quarterly and a clear NDAA qualification milestone are the minimum prerequisites for a rating upgrade. Continued insider selling, especially outside of 10b5-1 plans, would further erode confidence. Until these catalysts materialize, the risk/reward skews negative, and a review of the investment thesis is warranted by Q3 results.

Thesis delta

The Q2 results leave the self-funded growth thesis unproven. While revenue momentum is strong, cash burn failed to decline sufficiently after the one-time Brighton lease payment, increasing the probability of a dilutive capital raise. The WAIT rating is reinforced, with the bear case now more likely if Q3 operating cash outflow exceeds $15 million.