IQSTEL Projects $8M EBITDA Run-Rate, Targets $500M+ Pro Forma Revenue with Ultranet Deal

What happened

IQSTEL announced it expects to exceed an $8 million adjusted EBITDA run rate this quarter, leveraging its global platform to accelerate growth. The company reported $207 million in first-half 2026 revenue, annualizing above $400 million standalone, while the pending Ultranet acquisition is projected to add roughly $130 million in annual revenue and $4.5 million in net income. Management positioned the combined entity as surpassing a $500 million revenue run rate and driving adjusted EBITDA toward $13–$15 million. However, the deepvalue analysis noted that IQST still has a 'substantial doubt' going concern, negative working capital, and has not yet filed a definitive Ultranet purchase agreement despite an early August deadline. The market remains in a show-me phase: the stock reacted to the release but faces dilution risks if the deal and operating cash flow inflection do not materialize soon.

Implication

The EBITDA run-rate projection signals management's confidence, but the 'substantial doubt' going-concern flag and negative operating cash flow in Q1’26 underscore that liquidity remains fragile. Without a definitive deal filing by the early August deadline, the MOU’s closing timeline slips, increasing reliance on the at-the-market equity line at a discount. If Ultranet closes with the stated economics, consolidated profitability could inflect, making current levels attractive. Until then, the heavy customer concentration and thin gross margins keep the risk-reward skewed, and any buyback authorization remains unfunded without QXTEL dividends. Position size should reflect the deal execution risk and potential for dilution before fundamental improvement arrives.

Thesis delta

Management’s guidance adds near-term growth aspirations, but the central thesis—whether IQST can close Ultranet on schedule and convert scale to cash flow—is unchanged. The investment case remains conditional on a definitive agreement and regulatory approvals; without them, the capital structure’s dilutive features dominate.