Kaspi.kz 2Q/1H 2026 Results Released; Deposit Costs and Hepsiburada in Focus

What happened

Kaspi.kz published its 2Q and 1H 2026 financial results, marking the first full quarter since the Tencent investment and the recent insider selling cluster. The market’s attention will center on whether deposit funding costs have stabilized from 1Q’s 14.3% and whether Hepsiburada remained ‘around EBITDA breakeven’ as guided, given the 85.17% voting stake magnifies earnings sensitivity. Any update on the delayed Rabobank A.Ş. banking license acquisition will also be scrutinized, as external reports have pointed to an end‑2026 close. The results arrive after a period of price volatility, with the stock bouncing from $78 in early June to $83.50 just before the release, indicating the market is pricing a wide range of outcomes. Early indicators from Hepsiburada’s 1Q orders (+22.1% YoY) and GMV (+28.4% YoY) suggest demand remains strong, but the critical question is whether scale is translating into contained losses.

Implication

If results show deposit costs steady or declining and Hepsiburada hewing to EBITDA breakeven with continued GMV take‑rate expansion, the bull case ($115+) becomes more tangible and the stock could rally toward the $95 base‑case value. Conversely, a further step‑up in funding costs or a drift into sustained losses at Hepsiburada would activate the bear scenario ($65) and severely damage confidence, especially given the insider selling flagged in the master report. The market’s reaction will be binary until detailed segment breakdowns emerge; in the absence of clear stabilization, the stock is likely to remain range‑bound. Investors should also monitor management’s language on the Rabobank license timeline, as any further slippage would diminish Turkey’s fintech optionality. In the base case, the numbers likely confirm a slow‑grind improvement, supporting a gradual re‑rating toward $95 as deposit cost anxiety fades.

Thesis delta

The thesis is unchanged but the results provide the hard data needed to either confirm the stabilization narrative or force a downgrade. No shift can be inferred until the specific numbers are analyzed against the 90‑day checkpoints (deposit cost trend, Hepsiburada EBITDA, Rabobank timeline).