Q2 Reacceleration Moderates Credit Fears, But Not Enough to Shift Thesis

What happened

Inter & Co's Q2 results showed reaccelerating customer growth with 1.3 million net additions and a rebound in ARPAC, driving ROE to 16.3% and edging closer to the Rule of 50. The 15-90 day NPL ratio improved to 5.3% from 5.6% in Q1, though private payroll lending still introduces product-specific risk. Despite the stock's 40% drawdown over six months, the operational update addresses some of the credit-quality concerns that underpinned the previous WAIT call. However, with Brazil's Selic at 14.25% and Nubank presenting stiff competition, the quality of growth remains under scrutiny. The real story is shifting from raw expansion to whether stabilized credit trends and rising ARPAC can translate into durable risk-adjusted returns.

Implication

The ARPAC rebound and sequential decline in early-stage delinquencies reduce the immediate downside risk, making the bear case less likely. However, the thesis still requires confirmation that risk-adjusted NIM can recover and capital ratios improve after recent subordinated issuance. The Rule of 50 milestone looks more achievable, which could support a re-rating if sustained, but one quarter does not prove durability. Investors should view the stock's current level near the $5.00 attractive entry as an opportunity to reassess in 3–6 months when the next quarterly data confirms whether the positive trends hold. Until then, the WAIT rating remains appropriate, with a bias to upgrade if 3Q26 shows further credit stabilization and ARPAC expansion.

Thesis delta

Q2 results provide early evidence that growth quality is stabilizing, with lower NPLs and reaccelerated ARPAC marginally raising the probability of the bull case while reducing the bear case. However, the WAIT rating remains because a single quarter of improvement does not confirm that credit and capital metrics are on a durable upswing. The thesis still hinges on 3Q26 data proving that the secured-loan mix and funding advantages translate into sustained risk-adjusted profitability.