Nokia's 6G AI-RAN Trials With Nvidia, T-Mobile Mark Progress, But Valuation Remains Stretched

What happened

Nokia's AI-RAN narrative advanced with reports of upcoming 6G trials alongside Nvidia and T-Mobile, moving from concept to real-world testing. This development aligns with management's stated goal to launch customer trials in 2026 with committed operators. However, trials do not generate revenue and remain a call option on future commercialization, which Nokia has not yet outlined in financial terms. The core investment case still depends on sustained AI & Cloud order intake and IP design-win conversion, which are separate from AI-RAN. With the stock trading at a P/E above 80 and EV/EBITDA near 28, the market already prices in significant AI success, leaving little room for execution missteps.

Implication

Long-term, successful AI-RAN trials could open a new revenue stream for Nokia in the 2027-2028 timeframe, but that is too distant to underwrite at current valuation. The more immediate catalyst is the durability of AI & Cloud orders above €0.9B per quarter, along with IP Networks acceleration. Investors should monitor trial outcomes for signs of paid deployments, but not overweight this as a thesis driver until commercial terms are disclosed. Any pullback to the $11-$12 range would offer a more attractive entry given the execution risks. Conversely, failure to secure trials or convert them into orders would undermine the AI-RAN option value and could pressure the multiple.

Thesis delta

The news confirms progress on Nokia's AI-RAN roadmap, consistent with management's 2026 trial targets. However, it does not change the core thesis that Nokia's valuation depends on AI & Cloud order durability and IP conversion, which remain unproven. Accordingly, the WAIT rating is unchanged; AI-RAN trials are a positive signal but not yet a significant value driver.