Seeking Alpha Article Touts TMC's Regulatory Upside, But DeepValue Report Reinforces High-Risk, Option-Like Equity Profile

What happened

A Seeking Alpha article published on January 1, 2026, highlights TMC's potential benefits from NOAA certification, which could provide a regulatory backstop and enhance project credibility while limiting dilution risk through sovereign backing. However, the latest DeepValue Master Report reveals TMC remains a pre-revenue company with no revenue, negative equity, and persistent free cash flow burn of approximately $9-11 million per quarter, despite a stock surge of about 7x in 12 months to a ~$2.7 billion market cap. This price run embeds optimistic expectations for binary outcomes on ISA/NOAA permits, environmental acceptance, and technical scale-up, yet conventional valuation yields a deeply negative intrinsic value of -$1.87 per share with weak downside protection. The report emphasizes that TMC's equity functions essentially as a long-dated option on deep-sea mining becoming both permitted and economically viable, rather than a traditional mining investment. Consequently, while the news article points to upside from PFS results, it does not mitigate the fundamental risks of regulatory delays, environmental pushback, and ongoing capital needs.

Implication

The Seeking Alpha article's optimistic take on NOAA certification and PFS upside does not alter the core financial and regulatory vulnerabilities detailed in the DeepValue report, such as negative equity and dependence on unproven permits. For investors, the elevated market cap implies that much of the potential upside is already discounted, leaving minimal margin of safety if permitting timelines slip or technical hurdles emerge. Sovereign backing may reduce dilution risk in theory, but ongoing negative FCF and capital intensity necessitate further financing, likely dilutive, which could pressure shares if not executed strategically. Monitoring should prioritize ISA and NOAA decision updates, technical milestone achievements, and financing events over short-term news flow, as these will drive long-term value realization or erosion. Fundamentally oriented investors are advised to maintain a defensive stance, considering trimming or exiting positions, while only speculative capital with high risk tolerance might find value in the option-like exposure.

Thesis delta

The Seeking Alpha article emphasizes regulatory tailwinds and economic upside, but it does not address the DeepValue report's critical findings of persistent losses, high valuation, and binary risks. Therefore, the investment thesis remains unchanged: TMC is a high-risk, capital-intensive option on deep-sea mining's success, with current prices reflecting optimistic scenarios and limited downside protection, reinforcing a cautious or negative stance.