XP Q2 2026: Net inflows surge but retail take rate dips further

What happened

XP reported second quarter 2026 results with total client assets up 12% year-over-year to R$1,535 billion, while net inflows climbed to R$28 billion, a 188% increase from the prior year and 94% sequentially. The annualized retail take rate declined to 1.20%, down 5 basis points from 2Q25 but up 2 basis points from 1Q26, signaling that monetization pressure persists despite stronger asset gathering. This net inflow rebound alleviates one downside trigger from our prior assessment, but the take rate remains below the 1.25% threshold we had set for a potential upgrade. The court decision on FGC-linked marketing remains the key unresolved catalyst, with no new information in this release. Overall, the data is mildly positive on inflows but neutral to negative on profitability per asset, keeping the investment stance unchanged.

Implication

The sharp improvement in net inflows, if sustained, could support asset growth and eventually revenue, but the declining take rate suggests clients are still favoring low-fee products, which limits earnings leverage. The sequential uptick in take rate from 1.18% to 1.20% is a small positive, but the year-over-year decline remains a concern. The next quarterly print will be critical to see if net inflows can maintain above the R$94 billion annual run-rate and if take rate can stabilize or recover above 1.25%. Until then, the stock may remain range-bound as the market weighs improved flows against margin compression. Investors should wait for a clearer signal on both metrics or a resolution of the legal overhang before adding exposure.

Thesis delta

The WAIT rating remains unchanged. Q2 2026 shows a recovery in net inflows, which reduces the immediate concern of deteriorating asset gathering, but the retail take rate continues to slide year-over-year, failing to meet the upgrade condition of ≥1.25%. The thesis shift is therefore neutral: positive on flows, negative on monetization, with the FGC court decision still a major binary risk.