Kaspi.kz Q2 Reaffirms Core Strength; Turkey Flywheel Still Unproven

What happened

Kaspi.kz's Q2 2026 results met management guidance, with consolidated revenue up 15% YoY, driven by a 23% increase in fintech revenue and a 27% rise in marketplace value-added services. The Seeking Alpha article frames the Rabobank acquisition as unlocking a flywheel opportunity in Turkey and highlights the new Kasper AI assistant as reinforcing Kaspi's competitive moat in Kazakhstan. Our deeper analysis, however, shows that profitability remains constrained by higher deposit funding costs and ongoing investment in Hepsiburada, where EBITDA is still weighed down by advertising and cargo subsidies. The article provides no new material information beyond the Q2 data already incorporated in our master report, and its promotional tone understates the execution risk in Turkey. Net, the core Kazakhstan business remains solid, but the Turkey expansion has yet to demonstrate value-creating economics.

Implication

For investors, the article's bullish tone should be weighed against our base case of $102 with balanced risk, and the stock's current $94 price already reflects much of the optionality. Key data to watch over the next two quarters include Hepsiburada's EBITDA trend, any reduction in subsidy intensity, and Hepsi Bank's scaling metrics for loans and deposits. In Kazakhstan, the August 2026 deposit repricing must translate into improved fintech margins by Q4 2026, and NPLs should remain at or below 7.0%. At $94, valuation remains undemanding at 8x earnings and 3.6x EV/EBITDA, but there is no new catalyst here; existing positions can be held, and new entries are more attractive below $88. Avoid paying above $115 until Turkey shows clear progress toward profitability and the market rewards the flywheel narrative with tangible results.

Thesis delta

The investment thesis remains unchanged: Kaspi's Kazakhstan core supports stable earnings while Turkey optionality is unproven. This article's emphasis on Rabobank and Kasper AI adds no new evidence beyond the Q2 data we already incorporated, and its promotional tone understates margin pressure in Turkey. No adjustment to our potential buy rating or entry/exit levels.