Nano Labs 1H26 revenue slumps 66% amid unresolved treasury-disclosure gap

What happened

Nano Labs announced unaudited first-half 2026 results showing net revenue of RMB2.8 million (US$0.4 million), a 66% decline from RMB8.3 million in the same period of 2025, signaling further contraction in its micro-scale fabless IC business. The release contains no reserve composition, cost basis, or share-count bridge, so the central valuation question from the DeepValue report—whether the crypto treasury is per-share accretive—remains unanswered. With operating losses likely persisting (FY2024 net loss was US$15.75M and 1H25 net loss was US$1.6M), the equity increasingly depends on crypto-token price appreciation and continued access to dilutive financing tools like the US$45M ATM. The market's "treasury proxy" narrative remains unverified by SEC filings, and this top-line deterioration raises the stakes for management to deliver executed buybacks and transparent reserve disclosure. Overall, the report reinforces the WAIT rating and the thesis that investors should not pay for a treasury story unsupported by per-share fundamentals.

Implication

The 1H26 revenue decline from RMB8.3M to RMB2.8M confirms the operating business cannot offset treasury volatility, increasing dependency on crypto price moves and dilutive issuance. Without a reconciled reserve bridge and buyback execution totals, the stock's "treasury per share" math remains unsupported, so upside should be treated as speculative until the next 6-K or 20-F provides concrete data. In the near term, watch for ATM usage disclosures and share count changes; any confirmation of material share sales without offsetting repurchases would deepen the bear case and pressure the stock toward the $1.70 scenario. Conversely, a filing that shows stable reserves and minimal net dilution could justify re-evaluating the $3.30 base case, but such evidence has been absent for months. Position sizing should remain cautious, with the thesis-delta checkpoint at the next quarterly update; if dilution accelerates or reserves are not reconciled, exit risk rises sharply.

Thesis delta

The operating deterioration in 1H26 (revenue -66% YoY) strengthens the bear-case probability but does not change the overall WAIT rating. The original thesis emphasized waiting for a filed reserve bridge and quantified dilution control; this release delivers neither, so the burden of proof increases. Investors should maintain the $2.30 attractive entry only if subsequent filings show minimal dilution and transparent reserve accounting, otherwise reassess downward.