Amazon Eyes 90% In-House US Package Delivery by 2029

What happened

Amazon's internal forecast indicates its own delivery network will handle nearly 90% of US packages by 2029, with almost all projected package growth flowing through that network. This expands the company's long-running insourcing of logistics, gradually reducing reliance on UPS, FedEx, and USPS. The move aligns with Amazon's existing strategy of using fulfillment density to improve delivery speed and control costs. It adds to an already heavy infrastructure build, but the retail segment is not the primary driver of the current valuation debate. The news reinforces Amazon's retail moat without altering the core question of AWS growth and free cash flow conversion.

Implication

Over time, higher internal delivery share should improve retail cost per package and delivery reliability, potentially supporting margins if executed without excessive discounting. However, the near-term financial picture remains dominated by the $118.6B first-half capex and negative free cash flow, with AWS growth and AI monetization as the key swing factors. Investors should view this news as incremental positive for long-term retail efficiency but not a catalyst for the stock at current levels. The plan also adds to capital intensity, which could pressure free cash flow further if not offset by retail cost savings. Until AWS shows sustained growth above 30% and cash flow inflects, the WAIT rating remains appropriate.

Thesis delta

No material shift to the thesis. The insourcing target reinforces Amazon's logistics advantage but does not address the primary investment concerns: AWS growth sustainability and free cash flow. The thesis remains WAIT, with entry near $245.