Kaspi.kz: Strong Core, Unproven Türkiye Expansion

What happened

Kaspi.kz operates a dominant super app in Kazakhstan with 77 monthly transactions per active consumer and a 68% DAU/MAU, supported by deposit-funded lending and 764,000 merchants. The company is expanding into Türkiye through Hepsiburada (85% owned) and the newly acquired Rabobank A.Ş., now rebranded Hepsi Bank, to replicate its integrated payments, e-commerce, and fintech model. The loan portfolio is shifting toward longer-duration, higher-value loans, and while NPL coverage has declined, stable delinquency metrics suggest credit quality remains manageable. However, Türkiye is still dilutive: Hepsiburada's revenue grew 28% in constant currency in 2Q26 but EBITDA remained held back by subsidies, and the payments take rate fell to 1.00% from 1.07%. At $94 (8x earnings, 3.6x EV/EBITDA), the market discounts Türkiye risk, but the Kazakhstan core continues to generate stable profit and liquidity, leaving a moderate margin of safety contingent on execution.

Implication

The Kazakhstan core remains a durable cash generator, but the investment case now hinges on Türkiye becoming value-accretive rather than just revenue-accretive. Near-term catalysts include the outcome of the August 2026 deposit repricing on fintech margins, Hepsiburada's ability to reduce advertising and cargo subsidies while growing 3P take rates, and Hepsi Bank's transition from a shopping-loan pilot to disclosed loan book and revenue metrics. If by 1Q27 Hepsiburada still needs elevated subsidies or Hepsi Bank lacks clear scaling evidence, the thesis weakens and valuation support may compress. Conversely, if margin recovery appears in 4Q26 results and Türkiye monetization improves, the stock could re-rate toward the base case of $102. Given the mixed signals, investors should size positions accordingly and monitor quarterly disclosures for confirmation.

Thesis delta

The original thesis centered on Kazakhstan's cash generation and dividend capacity, but the narrative now demands proof that Türkiye can replicate the super app profitably. While the Kazakhstan moat remains intact, the market's focus on Türkiye margin dilution and Hepsi Bank execution raises the bar for catalysts. This shifts the thesis from a straightforward value play to a show-me story, reducing immediate confidence in margin recovery until deposit repricing and subsidy reductions are evidenced.