Deere Stock Trades at $684, But GuruFocus DCF Pegs Intrinsic Value at $562

What happened

On September 21, 2026, GuruFocus published a DCF analysis for Deere & Co., concluding an intrinsic value of $562 per share versus a market price of $684, implying meaningful overvaluation. This follows a period of strong price appreciation: the stock closed at $577 in early May 2026, according to the DeepValue master report, and has subsequently risen nearly 19% to reach the $684 level cited in the article. The master report's base case had implied value of $580, with a bull case at $640, meaning the current price exceeds even the most optimistic scenario previously modeled. The DCF analysis likely incorporates updated assumptions about future cash flows, but the key observation is that the stock now trades at a premium to intrinsic value estimates. This development suggests the stabilization story has been priced in and then some, shifting the risk-reward to the downside.

Implication

The new DCF suggests the market has extrapolated the construction and small ag strength beyond what fundamentals support, embedding assumptions that may not hold if tariffs remain elevated or right-to-repair remedies expand. With the stock at $684 versus the master report’s bull case of $640, the margin of safety has vanished, and the probability of a reversion to the $500–$580 range has increased. The WAIT rating from the master report should be maintained, and if an investor holds the stock, this is an opportunity to trim into strength above $630. Conversely, entry is only justified on a pullback toward the $520–$562 range, as the DCF intrinsic value aligns with the bear case. The next catalysts—tariff cost disclosures and right-to-repair updates—remain key, but at current prices they offer asymmetric downside risk.

Thesis delta

The previous WAIT rating was predicated on the stock trading near $577, below the $630 trim threshold. With the price now at $684, above the master report's bull case and the new DCF intrinsic value of $562, the thesis shifts to a clearer overvaluation signal. The appropriate action is to trim positions above $630 and refrain from new purchases until price revisits the $520–$562 range.