Kaspi.kz: Dividend Raise and Rate Cut Reinforce Core; Türkiye Still a Drag

What happened

The latest Seeking Alpha note maintains a Buy on Kaspi.kz, highlighting a dividend raise and strong fintech loan growth as evidence the Kazakhstan core remains resilient. The article points to a recent rate cut in Kazakhstan that lowers funding costs for the bank, a positive for interest-dependent segments. This aligns with the prior master report, which noted the August 2026 deposit repricing and expected margin improvement. However, the article also acknowledges that Hepsiburada is still dragging on consolidated earnings, consistent with the master report's view of Türkiye as the key risk. Overall, the core thesis is reinforced by these incremental positives, though Türkiye execution remains the swing factor.

Implication

The dividend raise signals management confidence in cash generation and shareholder returns, supporting the stock's valuation. A lower funding cost from the rate cut should improve fintech margins over the next few quarters, with strong loan growth and improved credit quality further underpinning earnings. However, Hepsiburada's losses continue to dilute group results, so the stock remains a bet on Türkiye's eventual inflection. Maintain a potential buy with an attractive entry around $88 and trim above $115, reassessing in 6–12 months as evidence of Türkiye margin improvement emerges.

Thesis delta

The thesis is unchanged but reinforced by the dividend raise and rate cut. The core Kazakhstan engine is generating more cash and should see margin improvement from lower funding costs. The Türkiye overhang persists, so the investment case still hinges on Hepsiburada's path to profitability.