Iridium Shareholders Approve Merger, Rocket Lab Clears Key Hurdle but Regulatory Path Remains

What happened

Iridium shareholders have approved the merger agreement with Rocket Lab, a required closing condition. The approval comes after the FCC's September 15 public notice initiating the regulatory review process. However, the deal still requires FCC consent, specified foreign approvals, Nasdaq listing approval for issued shares, and no blocking order, with closing expected in 2027. This development reduces one uncertainty but does not address the two other critical variables: Neutron timing and gross margin quality. The market's reaction should be muted because the approval was widely anticipated and the larger risks remain unresolved.

Implication

Investors should treat this as a minor positive step rather than a thesis-changer. The market had already priced in likely shareholder approval, and the harder hurdles are FCC and foreign regulatory reviews, which could still delay the deal into 2027. Neutron's Q4 2026 pad delivery remains the most important operational milestone, and any slip would undermine the medium-lift premium in the stock. Q3 gross margin will test whether the defense-heavy backlog is converting into acceptable profitability. The stock continues to trade on optimistic assumptions, and only concrete progress on Neutron and margins can unlock further upside from current levels.

Thesis delta

The thesis remains unchanged: Rocket Lab is a WAIT with a base-case implied value of $66. Iridium shareholder approval slightly reduces deal risk but does not alter the probability-weighted scenarios. The key drivers are still Neutron pad delivery and gross margin stability, and this event does not materially shift the entry or trim levels.