Triple Flag Q3 Revenue Rises on Ravenswood Debut; Valuation Concerns Persist

What happened

Triple Flag Precious Metals reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of US$106.7 million from sales of 25,030 gold equivalent ounces, up from US$93.5 million in the prior-year quarter. The result included the first deliveries from the Ravenswood gold mine in Australia, a new addition to the royalty portfolio that contributed to the quarterly performance. This follows a period of significant share-price appreciation, with TFPM trading near US$37 in early 2026, prompting a cautious 'potential sell' rating in our prior analysis due to elevated valuation multiples and crowded institutional positioning. While the quarter demonstrates continued portfolio growth, the year-over-year revenue increase of roughly 14% remains consistent with a mid-single-digit GEO growth trajectory, well below the company's 2029 target of 135,000–145,000 GEOs. The addition of Ravenswood adds incremental ounces but does not fundamentally alter the investment thesis, which hinges on the sustainability of record gold prices and the ability to source accretive deals at reasonable prices.

Implication

The Q3 2026 revenue of $106.7 million is only marginally above the ~$100 million run-rate implied by 2025's annualized sales, suggesting that the company's growth is decelerating as expected. At the current share price around $37, the stock trades at a forward P/E near 37x, which leaves little room for multiple expansion unless gold prices continue to surge or new deals accelerate meaningfully. The first deliveries from Ravenswood are a positive step, but the asset's contribution is small relative to the overall portfolio, and the 2029 GEO target of 135,000–145,000 still requires substantial additional contributions from other projects. Moreover, the risk of a gold price normalization remains the key downside catalyst; if gold retreats 25–30% as in our bear case, TFPM's earnings could compress high-single digits and the stock could fall toward $28. Therefore, we would not chase the stock here; instead, we would use any further strength toward $40 to reduce exposure and wait for a correction to the low $30s before re-establishing a position.

Thesis delta

The core thesis of a rich valuation and limited upside remains intact after the Q3 2026 report. While the addition of Ravenswood modestly improves the quality of the portfolio's growth pipeline, the reported revenue growth of ~14% year-over-year is insufficient to justify a re-rating from the current ~37x earnings multiple. Consequently, we maintain our 'potential sell' rating and our preferred entry range near $30, though the news reduces the immediate downside risk slightly.