Tempus Expands Moderna/Merck Collaboration; No Change to Thesis

What happened

Tempus announced an expanded multi-year collaboration with Moderna and Merck to support potential commercialization of intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157), an individualized neoantigen therapy. This builds on Tempus’ existing Merck relationship and adds Moderna, though financial terms were not disclosed. The collaboration likely leverages Tempus’ sequencing and data capabilities to support the vaccine development and commercialization process. While it provides incremental validation for the Data and Applications segment, it does not address near-term concerns around the pending Personalis acquisition, dilution, and 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Given the lack of revenue details and potential opt-out clauses, we view this as a modest positive signal without altering our fundamental view.

Implication

Investors should not overreact to this announcement. The expanded collaboration with Moderna and Merck may support Data and Applications growth, but revenue recognition and contract terms are uncertain. Core concerns around the Personalis acquisition, stock dilution, and the path to approximately $65 million adjusted EBITDA remain unchanged. We maintain our WAIT rating and suggest monitoring subsequent earnings for confirmation of collaboration economics. Our attractive entry level of $38 remains appropriate.

Thesis delta

No thesis change. The collaboration adds another large pharma relationship but lacks financial terms, so it does not materially improve the conversion or profitability outlook. Our concerns around Personalis integration and the timing of GAAP profitability are unresolved. We continue to monitor Data and Applications revenue growth and MRD progress as key drivers.