Rocket Lab scraps bridge loan, but Iridium deal still files up to 72M new shares

What happened

Rocket Lab announced it has terminated its $3.6 billion bridge loan facility without drawing on it, stating the Iridium acquisition is now fully funded through other means. The company expects Iridium's roughly $500 million of annual EBITDA to transform Rocket Lab's current $80 million EBITDA loss into approximately $420 million of positive EBITDA, before any contribution from Neutron. However, the financing package includes up to 72 million new shares, with only 17 million contingent on the collar's stock-price window, implying a base issuance of 55 million shares. This still represents roughly 9-12% dilution to existing shareholders, depending on the final share count. The news removes the overhang of expensive bridge debt but leaves the equity story reliant on Neutron execution and actual cash conversion from Iridium.

Implication

Investors should wait for Neutron milestones and post-close integration evidence; the deal adds scale but not yet proven per-share value, so maintain WAIT stance unless shares pull back toward $58.

Thesis delta

The Iridium financing has shifted from a major risk to a manageable known quantity, but the operational thesis still hinges on Neutron timing and Iridium's cash generation. Dilution of up to 72M shares is substantial but less than feared, and the removal of the bridge loan improves capital structure. This modestly improves the risk/reward but does not change the WAIT rating absent Neutron progress.