Navitas 24kW 800V-to-12V board adds AI data center credibility, but WAIT thesis intact

What happened

Navitas Semiconductor announced a 24 kW power delivery board that converts 800 VDC to 12 VDC targeting 97% efficiency, positioning it for AI data center power redesign and prompting Baird to reiterate its Outperform rating. This product builds on the company's Nvidia ecosystem involvement and aligns with its pivot toward high-power AI and grid applications. However, the latest DeepValue master report maintains a WAIT rating with a 4.0 conviction, citing that AI revenue remains unaudited and meaningful commercial conversion is not expected until 2027. Q2 2026 revenue was only $10.5 million with a $228.2 million net loss, and ongoing litigation from Wolfspeed and Renesas adds risk to product commercialization. While the new board demonstrates technical progress, it does not address the near-term revenue gap, heavy dilution, or legal overhang that underpin the current caution.

Implication

Over a 6-12 month horizon, the thesis hinges on concrete revenue conversion from AI/800V programs, meeting Q3 2026 guidance of $13.5M, and resolving litigation without material setbacks. Until those milestones are met, the risk-reward remains unfavorable with base case value around $12 and downside to $8 if delays persist or legal issues escalate. A better entry point near $8 or evidence of booked AI production revenue would warrant a more constructive view.

Thesis delta

The thesis is essentially unchanged. The new 24kW board provides incremental evidence of product development and customer engagement but does not address the critical risks of delayed AI revenue, operational losses, dilution, and litigation. Hence, the WAIT rating remains appropriate.