PLTR: AI Execution Reinforced, Valuation Keeps DW at WAIT

What happened

Seeking Alpha reiterated a Strong Buy rating, arguing Palantir is in production while peers still pilot, and highlighted Q2 revenue growth of 93% YoY, a 149% surge in U.S. commercial revenue, and adjusted operating margin of 62%. The DeepValue master report already recognized these elite results, including Q2 revenue of $1.935 billion, GAAP operating margin of 47%, and U.S. commercial remaining deal value (RDV) of $6.238 billion. However, DeepValue maintained a WAIT rating because the stock at $188.8 trades at roughly 58.3x EV/sales, 149.8x P/E, and 256.4x EV/EBITDA, which prices in sustained hypergrowth. Filings also reveal that reported remaining performance obligations (RPO) stood at only $4.9 billion versus headline deal metrics, and accounts receivable concentration rose, with one customer representing 27% of receivables, signaling possible conversion uncertainty. As a result, the new article does not change the valuation-driven caution, and DeepValue continues to view $155 as a more attractive entry while trimming above $205.

Implication

Near term, the bullish AI production story may continue to support sentiment, but the current multiple leaves little room for execution slips or even modest deceleration. The key checkpoint is the next earnings release: Q3 revenue must land inside the $2.160–$2.164 billion guide and U.S. commercial RDV must grow from $6.238 billion to sustain the growth narrative. If those targets miss, the stock could quickly derate from its premium valuation. Conversely, if revenue beats and RDV grows above $6.5 billion while RPO conversion improves, the thesis would strengthen and justify revisiting the WAIT rating. Until then, the balance of risk and reward favors patience, with an attractive entry zone around $155 and a trim level above $205.

Thesis delta

No change to the WAIT rating. The article reinforces Palantir's execution strength but does not resolve the core concerns of stretched valuation and uncertainty in backlog-to-revenue conversion. The existing price targets of $155 attractive entry and $205 trim level remain appropriate.